Valspar Tournament Predictions by Lou Riccio
Posted on March 8th, 2018 by Herb Rubenstein
From Lou Riccio and found in Golf Digest: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/golf-tournament-predictor
Before listing the top ten, let’s look at Tiger’s chances this week. As at the Honda, the Model shows improvement for Tiger. He has a good chance of making the cut and has an outside chance of being in the top ten. His chances of winning still have to be called a long, long shot. Of course, he was not too far from making a run at it at the Honda. Did he play above his current capability at the Honda, or is that the new normal for Tiger? The Model says he played a little above his capability and predicts for the Valspar a finish in the 30 to 50 range. (I’m personally hoping the Model is less generous than it should be in Tiger’s case.)
As for the Model’s top ten, the Model picks essentially the same players no mater what is empathized: long term play, recent play, or past play specifically on this course. Spieth, Stenson, McIlroy and Casey all seem to be well suited for this course. Spieth just needs to get his putting in order to return to dominance. The Model really likes Stenson, but is he healthy? McIIroy has been a pick for the Model all year but has failed to deliver mainly due to sub par iron play. The Model seems to think this is the week he returns to championship ball striking. Casey has played well enough this year to be a favorite of the Model but has yet to close a deal. Look at his putting stats. That’s his problem. The Model thinks the greens here are a better fit for his game.
After those four, the Model likes four Masters contenders: Garcia, Rose, Oosthuizen, and Scott. Only Garcia has distinguished himself, but all are getting ready for Augusta.
Once again the Model likes Austin Cook, but his iron play has weakened since his fine Fall campaign. After him there are a number of good players contending for the tenth pick. The highest ranked is Sam Burns who played arguably one of the more courageous rounds, being paired with Tiger on Sunday at the Honda. He played very well. Maybe he can use that experience as a springboard.
Try your hand each week. With 144 great players in each tournament, when you pick the top ten you are lucky to get three of your pics in there!!! But, give it a try.