Dean and DeLuca Tournament Prediction by Lou Riccio
Posted on May 21st, 2018 by Herb Rubenstein
- May 24-27: DEAN & DELUCA Invitational; Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, TX; $7,100,000
Jordan Spieth is the expected winner!!!
That’s it. After Spieth, the next best player has half the chance of winning as he does. It’s the same result if overall play, or year to date play, or if course specific play is emphasized. One caveat: the year to date play version doesn’t fully recognize his recent putting woes. It is assuming that his traditional great putting returns. But even with an adjustment for poor putting, the Model still has him at the top of the list.
Spieth’s 13% chance of winning is the best, but it leaves 87% chance for the field, and there are many top players in this field. Rahm, Fowler, and Cantlay follow Spieth with strong chances. Again, a caveat, all three have faltered down the stretch in recent weeks. But they do have the game to play well on this traditional style course. Koepka seems to be getting back his US Open winning form, and the Model thinks he could do well at Colonial.
After those five, the probabilities drop but are still well above average. Kisner, Zach Johnson, and Rose all would like to show they can play well enough to challenge at the US Open in a few weeks, so I don’t think their high ranking by the Model is misplaced.
After those eight, the probabilities even out and we get a number of possible choices. Stricker and Snedeker, a couple of “old guys”, are next in line, but neither have shown much promise this year. Kuchar is in the Model’s Top Ten when using recent data, and just outside it in the other runs. Same for Na who had a good showing this past weekend and could put it together for once.
As such I’m filling out the Model’s field with Kuchar and Na.
Note: even with the full Top Ten, there is still a 50% chance the winner will come from outside the list. We could see another “newcomer” take the trophy.
- Z. Johnson