British Open Predictions: From Lou Riccio
Posted on July 16th, 2018 by Herb Rubenstein
Picking the British Open Champion using only PGA Tour data is somewhat problematic. Doing so emphasizes American golfers and foreign golfers who play a fair amount on the PGA Tour. Globe trotting types don’t show up as well.
As such it should be no surprise that the Model picks mostly American players. It is also no surprise it picks almost all chalk and gives just about anyone else little chance. For this year it is picking the long hitters which makes some sense on Carnoustie. The last few holes favor the long hitters. They can blow by the trouble those holes present.
What is most interesting is whom the Model says will NOT win. You guessed it: Tiger. It gives Tiger virtually no chance of winning, less than 10% chance of a top ten, and only a 70% chance of making the cut. Phil, Zach Johnson, McIlroy, Casey, Kuchar, and the hot Molinari all look like good top twenty but not top ten bets.
Of the Model’s picks, several have had mixed results this year and have had trouble finishing off a lead. But they are all strong players who should dominate the course unless the weather changes the play drastically. Here they are:
- Spieth
- D. Johnson
- Day
- Stenson
- Rose
- Matsuyama
- Fowler
- Koepka
- Rahm
- Thomas
